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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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