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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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