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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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