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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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