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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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