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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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