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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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