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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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