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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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