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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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