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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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