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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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