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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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