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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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