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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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