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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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