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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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