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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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