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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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