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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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