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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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