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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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