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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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