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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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