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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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