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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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