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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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