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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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