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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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