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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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