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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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