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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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