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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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