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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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