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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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