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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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