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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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