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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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