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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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