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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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