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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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