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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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