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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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