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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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