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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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