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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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