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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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