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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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