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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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