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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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