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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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