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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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