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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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