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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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