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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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