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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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