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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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