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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- The University of Queensland
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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