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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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