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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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