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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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