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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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