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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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