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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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