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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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