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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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