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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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