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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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