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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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