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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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