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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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