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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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