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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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