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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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