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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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