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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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