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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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