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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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