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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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