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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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