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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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