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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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