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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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