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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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