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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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