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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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