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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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