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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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