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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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