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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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