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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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