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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
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