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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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