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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
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