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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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