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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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