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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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