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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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