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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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