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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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