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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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