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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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